Polyester industry chain is optimistic about PTA's

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Polyester industry chain is optimistic about PTA's profit next year

polyester industry chain is optimistic about PTA. At present, the popular packaging in the market is mainly plastic and paper, and the annual profit is mainly

September 17, 2018

recently, Hengli Co., Ltd. announced that its subsidiary Hengli Petrochemical plans to invest 2.988 billion yuan to build a 2.5 million ton pta-5 project. Expansion of production capacity is undoubtedly optimistic about PTA's future profit prospects

since August this year, the profits of polyester industry chain have shown a substantial expansion in an overall way. Among them, the global graphene industry of PX, PTA and polyester will exceed trillion yuan, and the price of silk will increase by 14%, 33% and 16% respectively. The profit per ton of pta+ polyester will nearly double, and the profits of relevant enterprises will undoubtedly increase significantly. However, the profit improvement of PTA and polyester in this round is far from the high point, and it is expected to remain high next year

from the beginning of last year to the first half of this year, the demand growth rate of the polyester industry has exceeded the expectation. It has maintained a growth rate of about 15% for one and a half consecutive years. The core reason why the demand exceeds the expectation is to replenish the inventory. Polyester industry has always been buying up rather than buying down. In the past few years, prices have continued to fall, and all downstream links are desperately trying to inventory. With the establishment of the rising price trend in 2017, the downstream began to replenish inventory, especially the rising oil price stimulated the intensity of replenishment. Therefore, as long as the price trend remains in the future, the demand growth will not slow down easily in the short term

looking forward to the future, from the perspective of cycle, the expectation of oil price rise is very strong. Therefore, the polyester industry chain cycle has only completed the first half, and it is far from over. As far as the whole polyester industry chain is concerned, PTA is the most promising before the end of 2019

the PTA output since May this year is not enough to meet the downstream polyester demand, resulting in the continuous destocking of PTA in the past four months, which is also the direct cause of this round of sharp rise. At present, the nominal capacity of PTA is very high, but nearly 10million tons of units have been shut down for a long time. The real effective capacity is only about 43.8 million tons, corresponding to the latest weekly output of about 780000 tons. The operating rate has reached 90%. However, even so, it continues to de stocking. At present, the inventory is only 730000 tons, which has reached a historical low, forming a strong support for the price. In the future, although PTA plans to add a lot of new capacity, the real new supply that can be implemented is very limited. By the fourth quarter of 2019, only the original Xianglu 1.5 million ton and Sichuan Shengda 1million ton units will have the possibility to resume production, while polyester is still expanding production, and the growth rate is higher than PTA, so the supply and demand will be more tense. At present, even if the price is corrected, the range is probably very limited

in contrast to PX, the main reason for the high profit of PX in the past few years is the insufficient domestic supply, which is heavily dependent on imports, and the import dependence is higher than 50% for a long time. Looking into the future, there are still 20million tons and 7million tons of PX production capacity at home and abroad. The imbalance between supply and demand will promote the transfer of profits to the downstream


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