Polyester inventory decreased significantly, PTA s

2022-06-22
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Polyester inventory has decreased significantly, and PTA supply-demand relationship is expected to improve.

at present, in the PTA industrial chain, crude oil and naphtha at the cost end have entered a range of shocks; On the demand side, it is expected that the polyester plant will quickly resume operation, which will form a certain support for PTA demand. Although it has entered the traditional "golden nine and silver ten" peak season, part of the demand may have been digested in advance, and the polyester demand in the later stage needs to be verified. However, on the whole, the PTA supply-demand relationship will improve in September. It is expected that the supply and demand will be basically balanced, and may be stronger in the short term, but the rebound height depends on the recovery of polyester load

px or oversupply

in August, international crude oil first rose and then fell, rebounding from the lowest point of $41.51/barrel to $51.22/barrel, and then began to fall after a short period of shock. It is noteworthy that factors such as whether the September production freeze agreement can be successfully reached, the gasoline inventory in the United States is still above the five-year average, and the arrival of the refinery overhaul season will put a question mark on the rise of crude oil

the price difference between naphtha and Brent crude oil has dropped sharply this year. The high operating rate of refineries under low oil prices makes the naphtha supply sufficient, which suppresses the cracking profit of naphtha. At present, the naphtha price difference has narrowed to a historical low. Therefore, there is little probability that the naphtha price difference will continue to weaken in the fourth quarter of this year. Instead, it should be mainly adjusted and slightly revised

unlike naphtha, the processing price difference of PX is relatively good, but the supply of PX has been sufficient since August, resulting in the price difference beginning to shrink. In September, some PTA devices are subject to centralized maintenance, and PTA load will continue to drop. Therefore, the situation of PX supply exceeding demand in September may continue

pta supply-demand relationship improved

in July and August this year, the off-season was not light, and some enterprises prepared goods in advance. The polyester load has been hovering at a high level of more than 80%, so that the rigid demand for PTA has been maintained, and PTA is basically in a state of slight de stocking. Recently, the polyester plant in Xiaoshao district has been shut down in a large area, and the polyester load has suddenly dropped to about 63%. However, the recent overhaul area of PTA plant is not as large as that of polyester, and the load has only dropped from about 70% of the 70 members of the Legislative Council who voted against it to about 62%. According to the actual amount of PTA used in polyester, the PTA load at this time is much greater than the balance load, that is, PTA begins to accumulate

according to CCF data, the monthly PTA output in August was 2.73 million tons, the import volume was estimated to be 40000 tons, and the total domestic PTA supply was estimated to be 2.77 million tons; The total output of polyester is about 3.03 million tons, equivalent to about 2.604 million tons of PTA consumption, and about 80000 tons of PTA consumption in other fields; The domestic PTA export volume is estimated to be million tons, and the total domestic PTA demand is about 2.684 million tons. In general, domestic PTA supply and demand were basically balanced in August, and social inventory remained stable

in September, there were many centralized maintenance of PTA plants, including several sets of large units, such as Honggang petrochemical, Taihua Xingye, Yisheng, Hengli, etc. it is expected that the PTA load will be maintained at a low level in the middle and first ten days of September. From the perspective of warehouse receipts, since July, a huge amount of warehouse receipts began to flow out gradually, reducing the sensor from nearly 1million tons to about 500000 tons from the highest point. The cancelled warehouse receipts mainly flow to PTA plants and polyester plants, which will have a certain impact on the price of PTA. The current PTA spot processing price difference fluctuates around 400 yuan/ton, and there is limited space for further downward compression

affected by the shutdown of polyester and PTA plants and the logistics outage, polyester sales were driven by the downstream plants' stock in advance. Although the polyester price fluctuation increased by 12.5%, the inventory decreased significantly. Most enterprises' cash flow was very good, and the benefits were expanded compared with the previous month, which would stimulate the polyester plants to resume operation quickly

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